Вот это интервью
http:// cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2015/02/01/pres-obama-on-fareed-zakaria-gps-cnn-exclusive/


And since Mr. Putin made this decision around Crimea and Ukraine - not because of some grand strategy, but essentially because he was caught off-balance by the protests in the Maidan and Yanukovych then fleeing after we had brokered a deal to transition power in Ukraine - since that time, this improvisation .......

Импровизация оказывется, спонтанное решение.
О как
ну и вывод, поражающий свой глубиной

So he's looking backwards, not forwards, and perhaps, over time, he changes his mind.